THE USE OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS IN MODELING THE ECOLOGICAL SITUATION BY PREDICTING THE TRANSITION OF TOXIC HEAVY METALS CADMIUM AND LEAD FROM THE FODDER OF THE RATION OF DAIRY COWS INTO ORGANIC WASTE AND THE ACCUMULATION OF POLLUTANTS IN THE SOIL OF AGRICU
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32782/naturaljournal.7.2024.23Keywords:
correlation, regression, forage, organic fertilizers, ecological risk, cattleAbstract
Heavy metals have a high environmental hazard for agro-ecosystems. Cadmium and lead move freely in trophic chains. From the fodder of dairy cows, they fall into organic waste, then fertilizers are applied to the soil and accumulate in high concentrations. The behavior of toxic heavy metals Cd and Pb in the components of the biosphere is not predicted, which complicates the conduct of agricultural production, especially organic and biological farming, the production of ecologically safe animal husbandry and crop production. Correlation and regression analysis of statistical data processing allow scientists from various countries of the USA, the European Union, China, etc. to check in research and recommend for practical application in ecological monitoring models for predicting soil load with heavy metals, establish probable sources of input, dynamics of dispersion in the environment, etc. Previous studies focused on the concentrations of contamination by heavy metals Cd, Pb, etc. fodder for dairy cows, milk, organic waste, the correlation itself was investigated, but using the Spearman method. Data analysis was carried out based on the results of a scientific and economic experiment conducted on dairy cows with different types of feeding in the forest-steppe zone of Ukraine. Cows were selected by the method of analogues for live weight and productivity. The diet included feed with an excess of cadmium and lead. The toxicity of pollutants affected their transition from feed to products and organic waste. The purpose of the research is to analyze the correlation relationship and build regression equations between the concentration of heavy metals Cd, Pb in the feed of the ration of dairy cows and their organic waste under different types of feeding, which will allow predicting the transition of pollutants into organic waste (fertilizers), soil pollution, carry out effective environmental monitoring, timely assess environmental risks in livestock enterprises or farms with organic-biological type of agriculture. Using the computer program STATISTICA version 10.0. a correlation analysis was performed using the parametric Pearson correlation coefficient, taking into account the Kolmogorov- Smirnov and Lilliefors test for normality and the Shapiro-Wilk's W test. Linear regression equations were used to model the relationship between variable Y (concentration of heavy metals in organic waste) and vector variable X (concentration of heavy metals in feed). The nature of the relationship was checked by constructing scatter diagrams (Scatterplot); analysis of residuals for compliance with the law of normal distribution (Gauss-owl); assessment of the acceptability of the model as a whole according to the level of probability by the ANOVA method; regression quality using the coefficient of determination R2. The analysis established high r=0.72-0.75 (Cd) (р<0.05), r=0.68 (Pb) (р<0.05) and very high r=0.82 (Cd) (р<0.05), r=0.81 (Pb) ( p<0.05) correlation dependence between the content of toxicants in feed and organic waste, made it possible to construct appropriate linear regression equations, to propose the most probable of them У=-0.0365+0.0054×Х for Cd and У=2.1195+6.8156×Х for Pb for predicting the transition pollutants in organic waste (fertilizers). The tested models will give the most accurate result of the pollutant concentration for Cd according to the data of the experiment with the silage-root type of animal feeding, for Pb with the silage-hay-concentrate type. Specialists can use the models for ecological monitoring of agro-ecosystems, forecasting of pollution risks and ecologically safe management of both traditional and organic-biological agriculture. Further research is aimed at correlational and regression analysis of other important indicators of environmental safety in veterinary, zootechnical and ecological practice, with an assessment of the relevant risks of cattle breeding in the forest-steppe zone of Ukraine.
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