MODELING THE DYNAMICS OF THE DICRANO-PINETUM ASSOCIATION IN THE TERRITORY OF ZHYTOMYR POLISSYA

Abstract

The relevance of the study is due to the need to predict changes in forest ecosystems of Polissya in conditions of increasing anthropogenic impact and global climate change. One of the important components of the forest ecosystems of the region is the Dicrano-Pinetum association, which is represented mainly by pine forests with a characteristic moss-lichen cover. Studying the dynamics of this association under the influence of a complex of ecological factors is an important scientific task, the results of which allow us to assess the impact of environmental changes on the structure and functioning of ecosystems, which is the basis for making decisions on natural resource management.The purpose of the work is to analyze phytocenotic diversity and predict the dynamics of the Dicrano- Pinetum association in the territory of Zhytomyr Polissya in conditions of climate change and anthropogenic impact.To achieve the set goal, a set of methods was applied: route-expedition method of geobotanical research, synphytoindication analysis (according to the Didukh-Plyuta scale), cluster analysis using Turboveg and Juice software tools, mathematical forecasting methods based on Markov chains and the Simargl software package. An analysis of environmental factors, such as soil moisture, thermal regime, level of climate continentality and anthropogenic load was conducted.The results of the study indicate a high biological diversity of the Dicrano-Pinetum association with a typical dominance of Scots pine and mosses (Dicranum polysetum, Polytrichum commune). It was found that the composition of the association significantly depends on the thermal regime, humidity and anthropogenic load. Three main scenarios of possible changes in the association in the future were developed: preservation of structural stability, transformation to mixed forests under conditions of increased humidity and temperature, degradation of moss cover under conditions of increased climate continentality.The scientific novelty of the work lies in the integrated use of modern methodological approaches to predicting successional changes in the Dicrano-Pinetum association using Markov modeling and synphytoindication analysis.The practical significance lies in the possibility of using the obtained results to develop effective environmental protection strategies and rational management of forest ecosystems of Polissya.