DEMOGRAPHIC DISPROPORTIONS OF TERRITORIAL COMMUNITIES IN THE CHERNIVTSI REGION AS THE BASIS FOR FORMING LOCAL SETTLEMENT SYSTEMS

Abstract

This article presents a comprehensive socio-geographical analysis of demographic disparities across the 52 territorial communities (TCs) of Chernivtsi Oblast, investigating their system-forming impact on local settlement systems following the 2020 administrative-territorial reform. The research addresses a significant scientific gap by evaluating these communities as an interconnected system influenced by the region's diverse geographic zones–ranging from the Prut-Dniester plain to the Carpathian Mountains. It is argued that the reform institutionally embeds pre-existing demographic contrasts, which now dictate the financial capacity, investment attractiveness, and strategic development trajectories of these newly formed units. The study identifies profound imbalances in population metrics; notably, the demographic core of the Chernivtsi city community accounts for over 30% of the oblast’s population, with a density of 1508.7 persons/km², exceeding the demographic potential of the smallest mountainous communities, such as Selyatynska, by more than 60 times. Further polarization is observed in urbanization levels and age structures. While communities like Livynetska face acute challenges with a 32% elderly population, others like Tereblechenska exhibit a much younger demographic profile (only 7.6% at retirement age), often linked to specific ethno-cultural traditions and higher birth rates. Additionally, the study highlights an anomaly in the gender ratio within the Selyatynska mountain community, where men comprise 55.3% of the population due to the local forestry industry. The analysis also explores the region's unique poly-ethnic structure, where a high concentration of Romanian and Moldovan populations (reaching over 90% in communities like Hertsaivska) fosters distinct transborder social and economic vectors. Furthermore, the article considers the impact of the 2022 full-scale invasion, which positioned the region as a rear hub for internally displaced persons (IDPs), adding significant strain to a social infrastructure that was already unevenly distributed. Ultimately, the research proves that demographic potential determines the hierarchy and functional type of local systems, with Chernivtsi acting as a first-rank core for the entire region. The findings underscore the necessity for differentiated regional strategies to mitigate depopulation and ensure sustainable development across all 52 communities.