INFLUENCE OF INTERANNUAL AND DECADAL VARIABILITY OF AGROMETEOROLOGICAL FACTORS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF POTATO EARLY BLIGHT UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF THE CENTRAL POLISSIA OF UKRAINE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32782/naturaljournal.16.2026.24Keywords:
Solanum tuberosum L., Alternaria spp., agrometeorological conditions, NASA POWER reanalysis data, cumulative indicators, early blight suitability index (EBSI), interannual variability, resistance of breeding materialAbstract
Three-year field experiments (2023 – 2025) conducted on sod-podzolic sandy soils at the Polissia Research Department of the Institute for Potato Research, NAAS of Ukraine demonstrated the cumulative nature of the influence of agrometeorological factors on the development of potato early blight. Weather conditions were analysed using data from the NASA POWER global reanalysis (MERRA-2), which enabled assessment of ten-day average air and soil temperature, soil moisture (GWETTOP), cumulative solar radiation, wind speed, and precipitation, synchronized with phytopathological assessments conducted at fixed phenological stages (60–105 days after planting). Potato varieties and hybrids representing early-, middle-early-, and mid-season maturity groups were evaluated. Early blight severity was assessed using a 9-point scale under the conditions of natural disease development in a field crop rotation of breeding nurseries without fungicide application. A consistent decline in resistance scores from the first to the fourth phytopathological assessment was recorded, reflecting the cumulative impact of agrometeorological factors throughout the growing season, most pronounced in early-ripening genotypes (67.1%). Interannual variability increased to 14.8 – 19.0% during the second half of the growing season, indicating an enhanced modifying role of weather conditions. Extreme agrometeorological conditions in 2024 resulted in the lowest resistance levels across all maturity groups. Correlation analysis revealed a statistically significant negative relationship between resistance scores and cumulative solar radiation and temperature indices, whereas soil moisture GWETTOP exhibited a compensatory effect. The Early Blight Suitability Index (EBSI), did not demonstrate sufficientpredictive valueunder drought-prone growing season conditions. Optimal timeframes for breeding evaluation and the feasibility of selecting adaptive genotypes under natural infection pressure, considering ongoing climate change, were substantiated.
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